The City of Richmond’s assessment for Manchester real estate has shot up by more than 22% in 2018. That increase is triple the citywide average of 7.3%. Here are the neighborhood area breakouts as reported by the Richmond Times-Dispatch:
Manchester 22.68%
Bainbridge/Manchester/Blackwell North 19.01%
Maury/Swansboro 10.46%
Oak Grove 7.59%
Why the big jump?
While that increase may sound like a lot, the rise comes after more than a decade of decline and stagnation. Said differently, Manchester residential real estate is only catching up to a broader trend of recovery that has been well underway in many areas of Richmond for more than 5 years. But this rising trend is really only getting the area back to the where it was before the Great Recession started slashing values in 2008.
While looking at a just a few sample houses does not tell the whole story, it can help paint a picture. The following two houses-one West of Hull and one East of Hull-both steadily declined in value post 2008. The house east of Hull (1804 Stockton) suffered from neglect as it fell into disrepair like many of the surrounding properties. The house to the West of Hull (1506 Porter) appears to approximately have gotten back to where it started in 2008.
1804 Stockton Ave
1506 Porter Street
So where do we go from here?
If you believe Zillow (which many realtors will tell you is highly dangerous and fraught with risk) area real estate values will see a continued increase if the economy stays on track. But every property is different. Old dilapidated houses suffering from decades of neglect will likely continue to erode, dragging down values for adjacent houses. Renovated and newly constructed homes will likely stabilize the properties in their immediate area.
What remains however, is an enormous amount of work to be done to construct new housing on blank parcels and renovate blighted housing mostly controlled by the Richmond Redevelopment and Housing Authority (aka RRHA). Richmond’s Housing Authority is by far the largest landowner in the area, and will play a significant role in determining what the future will look like. Will RRHA start developing the enormous swath of properties it holds in its portfolio? Or is RRHA content to let its properties continue to sit vacant? Ultimately, only city leaders know the answer to this question. With that having been said, whatever RRHA ultimately decides to do (or not do), it will have a large influence on the area’s future.
Dilapidated or not land value % increases have been the larger of the increases since before 2009. If you dig in the increases you will find that improvements might have gone up $10,000 but the lot went up $10,000 too. Land is scare and in even higher demand.